The UAE economy has continued to show resilience during a period of significant regional and global uncertainty. In its July 2026 assessment, the International Monetary Fund reported that the UAE’s economic fundamentals and policy measures helped contain the impact of regional conflict. The IMF noted that activity was affected across areas including tourism, transportation, trade and real estate, while hydrocarbon production was expected to increase later in the year. The organisation also noted that inflation was expected to rise in 2026 because of higher global energy and food prices before gradually easing over the medium term. These developments remain relevant for businesses monitoring economic conditions.
Economic Resilience
In its July 2026 assessment, the International Monetary Fund reported that the UAE economy had demonstrated resilience amid geopolitical uncertainty. The IMF attributed this partly to strong financial buffers, timely policy responses and the rerouting of oil and other trade flows. It also reported that government and government-related entity balance sheets helped contain the economic impact and preserve financial stability. These factors are relevant to businesses monitoring economic conditions and assessing how external developments may affect their operations.
Non-Hydrocarbon Activity
The IMF reported that increased uncertainty had affected several areas of non-hydrocarbon economic activity in 2026, including tourism, transportation, trade and real estate. According to the assessment, overall GDP was expected to be slightly lower in 2026 following strong expansion in 2025, while non-hydrocarbon activity was affected by the uncertain environment. The IMF expected activity to recover as tourism and trade flows normalise, illustrating how external events can influence different parts of the UAE economy.
Energy and Inflation
The IMF expected hydrocarbon growth to increase during the second half of 2026 as oil exports recover and production expands. At the same time, the organisation expected inflation to increase during 2026, partly because higher global energy and food prices can pass through to domestic prices. The IMF projected that inflation would gradually ease over the medium term. These developments are relevant to businesses because energy, food and other input costs can influence operating expenses and consumer demand.
Business Planning
The IMF noted that uncertainty surrounding the regional situation created both upside and downside risks to the economic outlook. It recommended continued attention to economic and financial stability, while highlighting diversification, trade integration, supply-chain resilience, technology and human capital as important areas for sustaining growth. For businesses, this highlights the value of regularly monitoring economic conditions and reviewing assumptions around costs, demand, supply chains and investment when preparing or updating business plans.